The Central Bank (BC) reported on Monday (14) that its Performance Index (IBC-Br), a preview of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which grew 0.86% in October compared to September, in the series has not been affected seasonally. In September, the advance is 1.68% (revised figure).
The impact of the new coronavirus pandemic on the economy, although recorded in February, has increased around the world since March. To prevent death tolls, Brazil Social isolation applied in much of the territory, which affected economic activity. Negative effects are noticed mainly in March and April. However, in recent months, IBC-Br shows response.
From September to October, the activity metrics are calculated by BC increased from 135.59 points to 136.75 points in a series of seasonal adjustments. This is the highest level since February this year (140.07 points).
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Comparing between October 2020 and October 2019, there was a 2.61% decrease in the seasonally unadjusted series. The series ended with IBC-Br hitting 139.37 points in October.
IBC-Br accumulated during the year
Cumulative IBC-Br was down 4.92% for the year through October, report with central bank. Percent refers to series with no seasonal adjustments. In the same chain, IBC-Br recorded a 3.93% decline in the 12 months ending October.
Effect of pandemic of the new Coronavirus The economy, though seen in February, has risen around the world since March. To curb the death toll, Brazil introduced social isolation in much of the territory, which affected economic activity. Negative effects are noticed mainly in March and April. However, in recent months, IBC-Br has shown a response.
O central bank it also reported that the IBC-Br registered a 6.46% increase in cumulative gains for the quarter ending October 2020, compared with the previous three months (May to July), according to the adjustment series. seasonal.
On the other hand, BC reports that IBC-Br accumulated a 2.65% decrease in the quarter to October 2020 from the same period in 2019, due to the series having no seasonal adjustments.
BC modified the IBC-Br data in margins, in adjustment series. The September index increased from + 1.29% to + 1.68%, while the August index increased from + 1.39% to + 1.63%.
In the case of July, this indicator increased from + 3.77% to + 2.42%. The figure in June increased from + 5.38% to + 5.23% and the figure in May increased from + 1.68% to + 2.15%. Concerning April, BC changed the index from -9.23% to -9.46%. In the case of March, from -5.89% to -6.01%.
Known as a kind of “BC preview for GDP”, IBC-Br it serves as a more accurate metric to gauge the growth rate of the Brazilian economy over the past few months. The current BC forecast for domestic operations in 2020 is a decrease of 5.0%. This calculation will be updated next Thursday through the Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI).
With information from Estadão Content.